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meme: kalshi had guam's democrat at 75%, the republican won 51.45% to 48.15%
template: "You know, I'm something of a scientist myself" (a classic) · cooked 4 nov 00:40 utc
HYPERLIQUIDnews 10.0/10meme 6.0/10R-0179

kalshi had guam's democrat at 75%, the republican won 51.45% to 48.15%

kalshi priced democrat therese terlaje at 75% in guam's governor race, in october and again during the count. republican tony ada won. elon mocked the platform as 'kalshit' and robby starbuck said he turned down kalshi and polymarket sponsorships because he doesn't think they're more trustworthy than polls.

HOW TO CHECK IT YOURSELF
  1. read the original guam post and robby starbuck's reply on X
  2. check the guam governor result on the official election results page
  3. look at kalshi's guam market history on kalshi's own site
WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOU
one miss on a thin market doesn't prove much, but prediction markets are being judged live like oracles in a crash. treat odds as one input, not truth. not financial advice.
receipt R-0179 · x: https://x.com/robbystarbuck/status/2117755632090554847 https://x.com/Kalshi/status/2117760736470405541 https://x.com/captive_dreamer/status/2117763683141239124 https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2117738327520715012 · 04 nov 00:39 utc · by data butcher